Monday, September 22, 2008

Brian Davis Releases New Poll Showing Walz Fading

For Immediate Release
September 22, 2008
Contact: Mike Spellings

Brian Davis Releases New Poll Showing Walz Fading

Davis Now Within Reach of Walz

Rochester - Coming off a resounding primary victory on September 9th with 67% of the vote, Brian Davis, Republican candidate for Minnesota's First Congressional District, has seen a significant bounce in the polls, while Tim Walz has faltered. The Davis campaign today released information showing Tim Walz polling at a disappointing 50% if the election were held today.

Davis, reacting to the new poll stated, "I am very pleased to see our hard work has been paying off. Minnesotans are taking a look at Tim Walz' record and seeing he is not the candidate they thought he was in 2006. I look forward to a more aggressive effort to expose Tim Walz' disappointing record in his short time in congress, and to provide representation that reflects southern Minnesota values."

The poll was conducted by The Tarrance Group. In a memorandum on the poll taken between September 17th and 18th, Brian Tringali of The Tarrance Group stated, "Tim Walz may not be on the endangered incumbent list for the Democrats, but he should be now."

"It's important to note here that incumbents go into the race with a stark advantage," said Mike Spellings of the Davis campaign. "Walz' lack of performance thus far in the campaign has shown his message rings hollow with the public, they understand he says one thing in his high-dollar TV ads, but does another when he's casting his vote in Washington."

For the presidential ticket, Republican John McCain is leading over Democrat Barack Obama in the First Congressional District

A release from The Tarrance Group on the poll is attached below.


to: Dr. Brian Davis
National Republican Congressional Committee

from: Brian C. Tringali
B.J. Martino
Kevin Hudak

re: A Post-Primary Bounce for Doctor Davis (MN-01)

date: September 22, 2008

Capitalizing on his primary victory just one week ago (where he carried 67% of the vote), Dr. Brian Davis, the Republican nominee for the First Congressional District of Minnesota, has seen a dramatic increase in his ballot position. Perhaps more importantly, the incumbent he is running against has dropped to a mere 50% on the ballot. For incumbent Members of Congress, the rule is often "what you see is what you get." Tim Walz may not be on the endangered incumbent list for the Democrats, but he should be now.

The Brian Davis for Congress campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) commissioned the Tarrance Group to conduct a telephone survey of N=300 registered voters throughout Minnesota's First Congressional District. A random sample of this type is likely to yield a margin of error of +5.8% in 95 out of 100 cases. Responses to the survey were gathered September 17-18, 2008.

This is the congressional district formerly held for by Congressman Gil Gutknecht until two years ago. As such, it should come as no shock that it is a toss up seat based upon the generic preferences of the voters who live there. Despite the fact that a Democrat is currently in office, 39% would prefer to see a Republican in this congressional seat and just 44% would prefer to see a Democrat.

Generic Ballot for Congress

Republican 39%
Undecided 16%
Democrat 44%

Another piece of evidence that this congressional district is winnable for Republicans again is seen through the presidential ballot. John McCain is currently holding a 2 point lead on the ballot over Barack Obama in the First District of Minnesota.

Presidential Ballot (within MN-01)

John McCain 45%
Barack Obama 43%
Bob Barr 1%
Ralph Nader 2%
Undecided 9%

Incumbent Democrat Tim Walz has lost four points off his ballot score over the last month. All of that vote and more, moved over to become part of the Davis coalition. Now that voters know who he faces in November, Walz garners just 50% of the vote. By definition, Walz is a vulnerable incumbent. Turnout modeling reveals that Tim Walz would capture less than half of the vote if the election were held today.

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