Brian Davis Releases New Poll Showing Walz Fading

For Immediate Release
September 22, 2008
Contact: Mike Spellings
507.424.2010

Brian Davis Releases New Poll Showing Walz Fading

Davis Now Within Reach of Walz


Rochester - Coming off a resounding primary victory on September 9th with 67% of the vote, Brian Davis, Republican candidate for Minnesota's First Congressional District, has seen a significant bounce in the polls, while Tim Walz has faltered. The Davis campaign today released information showing Tim Walz polling at a disappointing 50% if the election were held today.

Davis, reacting to the new poll stated, "I am very pleased to see our hard work has been paying off. Minnesotans are taking a look at Tim Walz' record and seeing he is not the candidate they thought he was in 2006. I look forward to a more aggressive effort to expose Tim Walz' disappointing record in his short time in congress, and to provide representation that reflects southern Minnesota values."

The poll was conducted by The Tarrance Group. In a memorandum on the poll taken between September 17th and 18th, Brian Tringali of The Tarrance Group stated, "Tim Walz may not be on the endangered incumbent list for the Democrats, but he should be now."

"It's important to note here that incumbents go into the race with a stark advantage," said Mike Spellings of the Davis campaign. "Walz' lack of performance thus far in the campaign has shown his message rings hollow with the public, they understand he says one thing in his high-dollar TV ads, but does another when he's casting his vote in Washington."

For the presidential ticket, Republican John McCain is leading over Democrat Barack Obama in the First Congressional District

A release from The Tarrance Group on the poll is attached below.

MEMORANDUM

to: Dr. Brian Davis
National Republican Congressional Committee

from: Brian C. Tringali
B.J. Martino
Kevin Hudak

re: A Post-Primary Bounce for Doctor Davis (MN-01)

date: September 22, 2008
________________________________________________________________________


Capitalizing on his primary victory just one week ago (where he carried 67% of the vote), Dr. Brian Davis, the Republican nominee for the First Congressional District of Minnesota, has seen a dramatic increase in his ballot position. Perhaps more importantly, the incumbent he is running against has dropped to a mere 50% on the ballot. For incumbent Members of Congress, the rule is often "what you see is what you get." Tim Walz may not be on the endangered incumbent list for the Democrats, but he should be now.

The Brian Davis for Congress campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) commissioned the Tarrance Group to conduct a telephone survey of N=300 registered voters throughout Minnesota's First Congressional District. A random sample of this type is likely to yield a margin of error of +5.8% in 95 out of 100 cases. Responses to the survey were gathered September 17-18, 2008.

This is the congressional district formerly held for by Congressman Gil Gutknecht until two years ago. As such, it should come as no shock that it is a toss up seat based upon the generic preferences of the voters who live there. Despite the fact that a Democrat is currently in office, 39% would prefer to see a Republican in this congressional seat and just 44% would prefer to see a Democrat.


Generic Ballot for Congress

Republican 39%
Undecided 16%
Democrat 44%


Another piece of evidence that this congressional district is winnable for Republicans again is seen through the presidential ballot. John McCain is currently holding a 2 point lead on the ballot over Barack Obama in the First District of Minnesota.


Presidential Ballot (within MN-01)

John McCain 45%
Barack Obama 43%
Bob Barr 1%
Ralph Nader 2%
Undecided 9%



Incumbent Democrat Tim Walz has lost four points off his ballot score over the last month. All of that vote and more, moved over to become part of the Davis coalition. Now that voters know who he faces in November, Walz garners just 50% of the vote. By definition, Walz is a vulnerable incumbent. Turnout modeling reveals that Tim Walz would capture less than half of the vote if the election were held today.




# # #

Party endorsement may hold weight in primary election

By JEFF CAGLE
Owatonna People's Press
Posted: Saturday, September 6, 2008 10:20 pm

OWATONNA — Dick Day’s election record heading into Tuesday’s primary election against Brian Davis is 13-1. He hasn’t been defeated in any race since 1982.“We’re hoping to go 14-1,” Day said on Friday.

Day is a political heavyweight in the Minnesota Republican Party, having served a number of leadership positions in the Senate and the state Republican Party. And while he’s respected by many, Day has also drawn the ire from liberals for some colorful comments he’s made about Minneapolis schools. He’s also drawn the ire from members of his own party for going alone in primary battles against party-endorsed candidates like Davis. When Day made the decision to bypass the endorsement, it angered many party leaders and delegates.

As punishment, the state Republican Party stripped Day of any party and fundraising resources. He also had the state party’s chairman Ron Carey call for his resignation. All the while, Day hasn’t been fazed.

“People have come up to me, and say, ‘Hey , thanks for giving us the opportunity to vote,’” Day said. And while Day’s supporters back him, former state Sen. Mel Frederick, one of his former opponents, said having the party endorsement helps a party introduce a candidate to perspective voters.

“I feel that the party isn’t snubbing him because he snubbed them first,” Frederick said.Frederick lost to Day in a 1990 primary by a mere 26 votes. Frederick isn’t upset that he lost to a political outsider, but by the way he lost.

In 1990, Frederick failed to garner enough votes to earn the district’s party nomination. Day bypassed the party endorsement and challenged Frederick to a primary.The weekend prior to the primary, a flyer circulated around Owatonna accusing Frederick of supporting abortion, something Frederick said was misleading.

“I’ve never liked him. I’ve never trusted him,” Frederick said.

Day didn’t have much of a problem winning this election. But if Day wins Tuesday, Frederick said he has a tough chance when it comes to defeating Democratic Congressman Tim Walz in the general election.

“That’s the value of an endorsement,” Frederick said. “It would be a tough uphill battle.”

Republican state Rep. Randy Demmer of Hayfield said Day threw his campaign, along with Davis’ campaign, a curve ball when he announced he was bypassing the First District convention.

Prior to the convention, the candidate pledged to abide by the party’s endorsement — something Demmer still plans to do Tuesday.

“I’m not sure if it’s fair for me to go the other way,” he said.

Day, meanwhile, has not felt bad about campaigning in primaries. He said those are the best ways for voters to decide whether or not their candidate is the best, as opposed to party activists. Plus, he knew going in that he was in what he called a “Day vs. Goliath” contest.

“I’m very glad I went the opportunity the way I went,” Day said. “There’s primaries in the Republican party... and it’ll be kind of interesting to watch how this all works out.”

Demmer said if Day were to win the primary, there may be some wounds that would have to heal. But he was confident people would rally around Day before the general election.Day, meanwhile, isn’t concerned if he loses because he’ll still have a Senate seat and two years left to serve out his term.

Jeff Cagle can be reached at 444-2378.

Representative Drazkowski's Letter to the Editor: Remember to take part in the process

September 5, 2008

By State Rep. Steve Drazkowski / Wabasha, Minn.

I encourage southern Minnesotans to vote in the primary elections this Tuesday. This is an important process in narrowing races where more than one candidate has filed for office under the same party affiliation.

Earlier this year, grassroots Republicans attended their local caucus and county conventions and were elected by their friends and neighbors to represent them and their interests in the district endorsing process. This process was sound and fair, conducted with integrity and broad participation, and brought us an outstanding candidate in Brian Davis. Brian was the person that grassroots Republicans endorsed to represent our conservative values on the November ballot. I would like to thank these delegates for making an outstanding choice.

I have had the privilege to spend many hours with Brian Davis, and can verify that he is the preeminent Republican to represent southern Minnesota in Washington, D.C.

Brian is the real deal. He’s honest, earnest and intelligent.

His education and work experience with nuclear energy and health care make him a great fit for handling the top issues facing our nation. Brian has offered authentic leadership to bring our country to energy independence. He will lead on securing our borders and reforming immigration.

Additionally, Davis is a newcomer to the political arena. He has not made a career of being in elected office. Brian is committed only to his constituents and has absolutely no interest in political favors.

Fellow Republicans, we have a wonderful opportunity to uphold the great decision our delegates made this spring by voting for Brian Davis. It is important we send the best and strongest candidate onward to face the liberal incumbent this November. As a united party supporting a great leader like Brian, we will make Minnesota a better place to live and raise a family.

Davis deserves your vote in primary

September 3, 2008

To the editor:

Even though it seems like the General Election is a long ways away, please don’t forget about the primary election on Sept. 9. This election sorts out the contending candidates within each party. While Minnesota has an open primary, a voter must only vote in one party. Some offices are not challenged, but one in particular needs your attention.

Brian Davis, a physician from Rochester, received the endorsement of his party at the Republican State Convention on March 29. His opposition promised to honor whoever was endorsed, but one contender broke his word so Brian Davis will need your vote on Sept. 9. I’ve met Brian personally and believe he is right candidate to represent this district in Washington, D.C.

Brian was born and raised in the Midwest. Both his parents were teachers. His father is a retired K-6 school principal, school board member and WWII veteran who served in the Army Air Corps in New Guinea. His mother is a retired reading teacher.

Brian has a Ph.D. in mechanical engineering besides his M.D. Before becoming a physician, Brian worked fulltime at Sargent and Lundy Engineers in Chicago on the licensing and design of nuclear power plants and radioactive waste management. He also knows the benefits of nuclear energy and acknowledges the need to drill here, drill now. He has experience treating cancer and has firsthand experience with the successes and limitations of the health care system. He knows how to fix it. From his experience as a doctor he knows it is not necessary to use embryos for experimentation. He knows that adult stem cell research has proved to be successful.

Check out the other races in the primary. It is a sad fact that many bad politicians are elected by the people who stay home and do not vote. This year the primary on Sept. 9 is overshadowed by the two national conventions and the General Election. Your participation might be more important on Sept. 9 than ever before.

Dave Hoss, Pipestone

Brian Davis: Letter to the Editor New Ulm Journal

September 5, 2008

TO THE EDITOR:

On March 29, after a series of elections beginning with nearly 7,000 caucus-goers, I received the endorsement of the Republican Party of Minnesota as their candidate for U.S. Congress in the First District.

Over the past 18 months, I've traveled over 60,000 miles crisscrossing southern Minnesota sharing my ideas and, more importantly, listening to thousands of Minnesotans share their concerns for America's future. The bottom line is that it's clear we have a problem with energy costs - gas and diesel prices are straining the budgets of families, farms and small businesses alike. We need to increase domestic energy production without government placing too many obstacles in the way in the form of regulations and new taxes, fees or royalties.

And high tax rates punish those small businesses and farmers who succeed and want to pass along their hard work to the next generation.

Minnesotans are looking for honesty in their elected officials, people who can deliver real solutions to our most pressing problems. As a father of four, physician, taxpayer, and engineer with prior energy industry experience, I am confident that we can do better.

On Sept. 9, I would be honored to have your vote in the upcoming Republican primary.
With your support, I'm ready to get to work for you, delivering results and common-sense conservative solutions.

BRIAN DAVIS
First District Congressional Candidate
Rochester

Woodley for Davis: New Ulm Journal Letter to the Editor

August 28, 2008

TO THE EDITOR:

As Chairman of the Brown County Republican Board, I am proud to endorse Brian Davis for U.S. Congress in the First Congressional District. I would encourage all Republicans to vote for Brian in the Sept. 9 Republican Primary.

Brian has received the endorsement of 23 County Chairs or Co-Chairs in 20 counties in the First Congressional District. That's because Brian is truly an electable candidate in November. Brian is strongly pro-family, pro-second amendment, supports low taxes, and wants to increase oil drilling as part of the solution to lower energy costs.

The November election is an important election for the citizens of the First Congressional District. Republicans must have their strongest candidate on the ballot and Brian Davis is that candidate.

I hope you will join with me in going to the polls on Sept. 9 in support of Brian Davis for U.S. Congress.

GERALD C. WOODLEY
New Ulm

Your View: Davis is delegates' choice

By Linda Pettman, Mankato

Mankato Free Press
September 05, 2008 11:05 pm—

Sen. Dick Day recently mailed out a flyer claiming that only 160 “party insiders” had chosen the Republican candidate for Congress in the 1st District.As one who has sought and received the endorsement of “party insiders” numerous times, Day knows that, through the representative process, those 160 1st District delegates represented Republican caucus attendees and BPOU (county or senate district) delegates throughout the 1st District.

At each level, voters’ selection of delegates to the next level was largely or wholly influenced by which candidates the delegate would support at the next level.Brian Davis has great support at each level of the process because Republicans understood that we need more experts in Congress, not more politicians.First District delegates chose Davis because he offers critical expertise in both health care and the energy field, in addition to representing 1st District values and concerns.

Day’s flyer also states, “You know where he stands.” Yet, over the course of many months, Day repeatedly promised to abide by the endorsement decision, only to change his mind late in the process, when it became obvious he could not win that endorsement.

To me, it is reminiscent of the boy who says, “If you won’t let me be the pitcher, I’m going to take my ball and go home.”Let’s send an expert, not a politician, to Congress.

Mankato Rally for Brian Davis for Congress

Republicans enjoy ups and downs at convention: Rochester Post Bulletin

9/5/2008 10:26:59 AM

By Matthew StollePost-Bulletin, Rochester MN

The Rochester delegation is having its ups and downs at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul:

• Anarchists have sown mischief in the early days of the convention. One tactic being used to disrupt the convention is to slash and puncture the tires of convention shuttle buses carrying delegates and alternates to the convention arena.

• Duane Quam, national alternate delegate to the Republican National Convention and a Byron resident, was riding on a bus that blew a tire caused by a sharp object. Quam had to wait while another bus was summoned to take him to the convention.

• Minnesota's national delegation has the equivalent of ringside seats at the convention. The 41-member delegation, which includes state Rep. Randy Demmer of Hayfield, occupies the first several rows of seats just to the right of the speaker's platform. When Republican presidential candidate John McCain accepts his party's nomination on Thursday night, state delegates will be about 20 yards away.

• GOP Senate Minority Leader Dave Senjem of Rochester had an opportunity to exchange a few words with former presidential candidate and ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at small fundraiser earlier in the convention.

"I congratulated him on his health care initiatives, told him he would have been a fine vice president," Senjem said. Romney was philosophical about his recent political defeats -- losing the presidential nomination and being passed over as Sen. John McCain's running mate -- indicating to Senjem that the political stars simply had not aligned for him.

• Brian Davis, the GOP candidate for Congress in the First Congressional District, addressed the Minnesota delegation on Tuesday and later met with GOP House Minority Whip Roy Blunt of Missouri.

Davis said Blunt inquired about the state of the campaign. While Blunt did not offer any specific pledges of support, Davis said the race is rising higher on the Republican National Congressional Committee's radar screen.

The seat is held by Democratic Congressman Tim Walz, a first-term representative from Mankato, but Davis must first beat state Sen. Dick Day of Owatonna to advance to the general election.

Davis is the right pick: Letter to the Editor

By Richard Dorn and Paul Evanson
Winona Daily News
Published Thursday, Sept. 4

As chairmen of the Winona County Republican Board, we are proud to endorse Brian Davis for U.S. Congress in the First Congressional District and encourage you to vote for Brian in the Sept. 9 Republican primary.Brian has received the endorsement of 22 county chairpersons in the First Congressional District. That’s because he is truly an electable candidate in November. Brian is strongly pro-family, pro-Second Amendment, supports cutting taxes and wants to increase drilling for more oil in order to lower fuel prices. The November election is an important election for our citizens. Republicans must have their strongest candidate on the ballot and Brian Davis is that candidate.

Vote for physician Brian Davis: Letter to the Editor

Published Wednesday, September 3, 2008

As chairman of the Freeborn County Republican Party board, I am proud to endorse Brian Davis for U.S. Congress in the 1st Congressional District and encourage you to vote for Brian in the Sept. 9 Republican primary election.

Brian has received the endorsement of 22 county chairs in the 1st Congressional District. That is because he truly is an electable candidate in November. Brian is strongly pro-family, pro-Second Amendment, supports cutting taxes and wants to increase drilling for more oil in order to lower gas prices.

The November election is an important election for our citizens. Republicans must have their strongest candidate on the ballot and Brian Davis is the candidate. Remember to vote for Brian in the Sept. 9 primary.

Tiny Brandt
chairman
Freeborn County Republicans
Albert Lea